System 01
Market AVM
A statistical model trained on every recent local sale of homes matching your beds, baths, sqft, age, and lot. This is what a Zestimate or Redfin Estimate is. Updated daily as comps close.
What is your home actually worth?
Enter your address. We run it through five systems that price homes differently, then triangulate.
Joshua Guerrero · CA DRE# 02267255 · Real Brokerage
Running 5 systems
- Market AVM (statistical model)
- County tax assessor value
- Replacement cost (NAHB + CA labor)
- Investor ARV (top-third comps)
- Joshua's triangulation
The five systems
Price is a triangulation, not a fact.
Most home value sites give you one number. The honest answer is that your home has at least five different values depending on who is asking. Each lens answers a different question, and the spread between them is where the real story lives.
System 02
Tax assessor value
What the county recorder thinks for property tax purposes. In California (Prop 13), this often lags market by 30 to 70 percent on long-held homes, which is why your tax bill feels small compared to what the home would sell for.
System 03
Replacement cost
What it would cost to rebuild this home today at current material and labor prices. This is what insurance carriers underwrite. Sqft times the regional construction cost (NAHB 2024 baseline + CA labor adjustment) times quality tier.
System 04
Investor ARV
After Repair Value: what the home would sell for renovated. Computed from the top third of local comps by $/sqft (proxy for "recently updated"), applied to your home's square footage.
System 05
Joshua's triangulation
Weighted blend of the four data lenses (AVM 60%, comp median 25%, ARV 15%), with an override for homes Joshua has personally walked. The number he'd actually list at.
For investors
Cap rate, GRM, 70% offer
Below the five values, the report also computes a rent estimate, cap rate at AVM, gross rent multiplier, the 70% wholesale offer (ARV times 0.70 minus rehab), and monthly cash flow at today's 30-year. Zillow doesn't show any of this.
Common questions
Why are the numbers different?
Probably none of them by themselves. The Market AVM is the most data-rich and is what your home is most likely to sell for if listed today at market price. The triangulated number adjusts for the ARV upside and the recent comp median. But the AVM doesn't know about your kitchen remodel, the cracked slab, or the comp that closed off-market. That's what Joshua's refined CMA is for.
California Prop 13 (1978) caps the annual increase in your home's assessed value at 2 percent per year, regardless of how much the market moves. If you bought your home for $400k in 2005, the county may still assess it around $580k today even if it would sell for $1.4M. The county's number is for tax billing, not selling.
Replacement cost is bricks + lumber + labor + permits to physically rebuild the structure. It excludes land. In SoCal, land is often more than half the market value, so the market price minus replacement cost is a rough proxy for what your dirt is worth. If you ever face a total loss insurance claim, replacement cost is what the policy will rebuild for.
ARV (After Repair Value) is what flippers and BRRRR investors back into when underwriting a deal. As a regular seller, the spread between Market AVM and ARV is the "upside left on the table" if you renovated before selling. Usually that math doesn't pencil for sellers; renovation costs eat the spread and timing risk is real. Joshua will tell you straight whether your situation is one of the rare exceptions.
The AVM is typically within 5 to 10 percent for properties with good comp coverage in normal markets, and meaningfully worse for unusual properties (large lots, custom builds, atypical layouts) or thin markets. The replacement cost and ARV are model approximations and should be read as ballpark figures. For a number you'd actually price a listing at, Joshua does a refined CMA after walking the home.
Yes. The address you enter gets logged so Joshua can follow up if you want the refined CMA. If you'd rather it not be, you can call him direct at (949) 438-5948 and skip the form entirely.
Ready when you are
Skip the algorithm. Get a real CMA.
Drop your address. Joshua will pull a real comparative market analysis with hand-picked comps, an honest read on whether listing now makes sense, and a 15-minute conversation about your timeline.
Or call direct: (949) 438-5948